Fall into the forecast 

With a new season underway, learn what to expect as Toronto says goodbye to summer. 

As we bid farewell to a summer that was hotter than normal, many will want to know what to expect now that fall is in full swing.  

In Toronto, a series of days exceeding 30 degrees were observed well into September. Many may want to know if this trend will continue, or if the cooler weather currently upon us is here to stay.  

David Wayne Phillips, senior climatologist for Environment Canada and spokesperson for the Meteorological Service of Canada, shares what the Greater Toronto Area (GTA) is in for this fall. 

“When we go forward to the fall, what we must look at, are the ocean temperatures and the oceans around Canada are warm. The Pacific Atlantic, the Arctic Hudson Bay, Great Lakes they’re all warmer,” Phillips said. “My sense is that this year, September looks more and more summery. Summer goes on rather than fall.”  

Phillips added that this year, the fall we experience may be neither too hot nor too dry, preventing leaves from browning due to drought, and bringing a pleasant view for Toronto residents.  

“I always think that’s nature’s reward for us, and in the fall, we can actually not only be comfortable saving money from heating or air conditioning, but it’s also quite beautiful,” he said. 

Through most of October and November, the region can look forward to warmer weather than what we’ve seen historically. However, he noted that the weather will not be as warm as the summer gone by. 

“It’s more sweater weather rather than T-shirt weather and you know that winter’s coming. This [October] will be one, two, or two and a half degrees warmer than what the long-term normal would be.”  

However, students should take note that while the season will be warm, individual days might not.  

“What I’m describing is not an individual day. I’m not describing Thanksgiving Day or the day before Halloween. They could be cool because of snow or frost but it doesn’t necessarily mean that the whole period of fall [is also like that],” said Phillips.  

He also mentioned that weather prediction is challenging as certain weather events can abruptly shift conditions as observed from the forecast maps.  

Therefore, Phillips says that people should always plan their daily or weekly schedule by checking the weather.  

“You can travel from one part of the GTA to another and you can go from sunny and blue skies to cloudy, so it’s always good to never leave home without getting the weather forecast,” he said. 

While nicer weather looks to be on the horizon for those in the GTA, it does not mean that we’re immune from frost or even potentially seeing snow.  

“Snow can come early [it can] come before Halloween but generally it doesn’t come till about the middle of November. So winter is still a little ways away, but this is the fall season. It’s again that transition season.”

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Fall into the forecast 

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