Better weather on the horizon as winter is predicted to be a bit further down the road.
Cooler mornings and shorter days are signaling the arrival of fall, but temperatures are expected to remain warmer than normal through October.
September has been about two degrees warmer than normal so far with cooler mornings kicking off the day. However, daytime temperatures are expected to remain in the low 20s for the next few weeks, several degrees above the usual September high of 19 C.
David Phillips, climatologist emeritus with Environment and Climate Change Canada (ECCC) said Toronto won’t return to August-like temperatures, with the coming weeks expected to feel more like sweater and jacket weather.
“It’s kind of you know sweater weather in the in the day and not sunshine, but daylight. But at night it does cool off a little bit. But you can just actually feel it and begin to actually see the fact that the season has changed. But boy, it’s gorgeous. Nobody can be against something like this. This kind of weather we’re having right now. So the weather has been great,” said Philips.
“Temperatures [are] getting a little cool because there’s more nighttime than daytime, so the temperatures cool off and then they can’t bounce back up to the 30s. So, but they’re at least four, maybe five degrees warmer than normal. I mean, the highs in Toronto right now should be a high of 19 for the afternoon. We’re seeing highs of this weekend and next week a 23… that’s about four degrees warmer than normal. At night we’re not seeing frost. We’re still about 10 degrees away from frost.”
However, temperatures are still expected to be warmer than normal for late September and October.
The month has also been relatively dry following a major rainfall event earlier in September. Phillips said most of the month’s rainfall came from the Sept. 2 storm, with only a few light rainy days since.
For those looking forward to watching the leaves change colour, the wait could be a little longer this year.
“[We] typically see a colour change season. That is what fall is. We’re famous for our colour changes. It’s almost that nature’s gift to us at this time of the year, a reward for us, and and yet it’s been slow because of the wet weather we had in the summer. The leaves have not turned yet, so we still have that colour, technicolour look to the landscape is still to come. It’s probably about two weeks shorter than it would be. So, I’m guessing maybe the middle of October will be the peak season in parts of southern Ontario, Muskoka, Toronto, maybe towards Halloween.”
Snow is also unlikely to arrive soon. Phillips said last year Toronto saw its first trace of snow in early November, followed by about 10 centimetres the next day.
He said the strong El Nino pattern in the pacific is also contributing to the warmer conditions.
More pacific and southerly air is keeping colder Arctic air at bay for now.
“Now we know we think the winter will be soft and open. It won’t be a harsh winter like we had last year and other winters, but it’ll be like an El Nino winter, and this is a strong El Nino. So nobody knows what the really the super El Nino will do to us. We sometimes think it doesn’t make it more impacts, but it just guarantees what you normally would get with El Nino. It almost guarantees it. It almost makes it a sure thing that it’s going to be warmer and more rain than snow.”
Forecast models from Canada, the United States and Europe are all pointing towards a warmer-than-normal fall, with precipitation potentially trending slightly below normal.
“It’s too early to worry about winter,” he said. “Let’s celebrate fall.
