A warmer than normal fall season expected, despite cooler September.
David Phillips, climatologist emeritus with Environment Canada, loves the fall season.
What he calls the “Goldilocks season” – as per the fairy tale with the girl, the talking bears, and porridge – fall is deemed to be just right for consumption.
For those who have been loving the summer heatwaves and extended periods of 30 degree weather: unfortunately, this is all about to come to an end, as September is expected to be cooler overall. This is in contrast to his first point, as Phillips notes the extended fall forecast sees us netting a fall that ends up being warmer than usual.
“What we’re saying for September is something in between. It’s kind of what I describe sometimes as Goldilocks weather, not too hot, not too cold, somewhere in between, somewhere which you’d expect for September to be. So far, we’ve just been warm, warm, warm, right from really May, June, July and August. Well, we’re going to go down. We’re actually going to feel and look like September,” said Phillips.
He adds that this is just the current forecast for September, and that when we add in October and November – the remaining months of the fall season – we end up getting an average season that will end up being warmer.
“So that’s the legitimate fall period, September, October, November. And what is showing Sean for the Toronto area, is warmer than normal. So even though it’s not, it’s not a contradiction. It’s just saying that okay, that September is going to and you have to understand that September is warmer than October on average. And certainly, October is warmer than November on average. So, everything’s based on what the normal would be for that particular month. And so, September just looks like it’s going to be kind of normal, maybe a little slightly longer below by maybe a degree or two, but essentially, it’s going to be a typical kind of September. What we normally would see where the fall period, September, October, November, is showing it’s going to be warmer than normal. So, what it’s telling you is that maybe October won’t be as cold as or cool as it sometimes is. And similarly, November. So that’s, that’s, that’s why that is not a contradiction.”
Phillips says after a summer where we had more days above 30 degrees than normal, it might be expected by some that a warmer summer means a cooler winter. However, he notes that it’s just not always the case.
“Just because you had a warm summer doesn’t mean you’re gonna have a cold winter or doesn’t mean that fall is going to go back to something below normal to balance off what you had in the summer,” Phillips said.
One of the more difficult things to predict is the precipitation amounts each season, Phillips adds. He says people want it, and they add it into the forecast because it is something which most people do want to know, however, it’s difficult to predict with accuracy.
